World Bank Estimates Lebanon’s Reconstruction and Recovery Needs at $11 Billion After Conflict
The World Bank has estimated Lebanon’s needs for reconstruction and recovery following the recent conflict at around $11 billion, according to the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) report for Lebanon in 2025. The report, which covers damages and losses across ten sectors nationwide, evaluates the impact of the conflict from October 8, 2023, to December 20, 2024.
Funding Needed from Public and Private Sectors
According to the report, Lebanon requires funding of approximately $3 to $5 billion from the public sector, with $1 billion allocated to infrastructure sectors such as energy, municipal services, transportation, water, sanitation, and irrigation. On the other hand, the private sector is expected to require funding between $6 and $8 billion, with most of these funds directed toward sectors such as housing, trade, industry, and tourism.
Economic Costs of the Conflict
The total economic cost of the conflict in Lebanon is estimated at $14 billion, with $6.8 billion in physical damages and $7.2 billion in economic losses resulting from decreased productivity, lost revenues, and operational costs. The report confirmed that the housing sector is the most affected, with damages estimated at around $4.6 billion.
Most Affected Sectors and Regions
The sectors of trade, industry, and tourism have been significantly impacted, with total losses in these areas reaching about $3.4 billion across the country. Geographically, the report pointed out that the Nabatieh and South Governorates were the most affected, followed by the Mount Lebanon Governorate, which includes the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Impact of the Conflict on the Macro-Economy
Economically, the report predicts a contraction of Lebanon’s real GDP by 7.1% in 2024, a sharp decline compared to an expected growth of 0.9% in the absence of the conflict. The report also indicated that the cumulative decline in Lebanon’s GDP since 2019 had surpassed 40% by the end of 2024, further exacerbating the effects of the multi-faceted economic recession and complicating the country’s future growth prospects.
Sources:
- World Bank Report on Lebanon’s Damage and Needs Assessment for 2025
- International News Agencies